Colorado State University has established itself as a trusted resource for accurate and reliable Atlantic hurricane season forecasts. Despite being landlocked in Colorado, the university’s team of experts are referred to by hurricane watchers across the U.S.

According to CSU’s preliminary April predictions, 2022’s hurricane season may be a rough one. They predict higher than normal activity for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, when compared to the averages from 1991 to 2020.

What Are This Year’s Named Storms?

When a storm’s winds reach 39 miles per hour, it becomes a named storm. The World Meteorological Organization’s list of names for the 2022 Atlantic storms include:

• Alex
• Bonnie
• Colin
• Danielle
• Earl
• Fiona
• Gaston
• Hermine
• Ian
• Julia
• Karl
• Lisa
• Martin
• Nicole
• Owen
• Paula
• Richard
• Shary
• Tobias
• Virginie
• Walter

The Science Involved

When meteorologists refer to El Niño and La Niña they are not talking about children. El Niño and La Niña are climate phenomena that affect weather around the world. El Niño and La Niña originate in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and since they are opposite phases of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), they cannot occur at the same time.

ENSO refers to the variability of the water temperature at the equatorial Pacific’s surface relative to the air pressure above. If the ocean’s surface temperature is above average, El Niño will develop. La Niña is the result of below average temperatures.    

What Is Considered Average?

CSU’s report lists the following averages for the 1991 to 2020 Atlantic hurricane seasons:

• 14.4 named storms
• 69.4 named storm days
• 7.2 hurricanes
• 27 hurricane days
• 3.2 major hurricanes
• 7.4 major hurricane days
• 135 percent net tropical cyclone activity

CSU’s Predictions for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Colorado State University predicts weak La Niña conditions will likely become neutral by summer or fall, resulting in an estimated:

• 19 named storms
• 90 named storm days
• 9 hurricanes
• 35 hurricane days
• 4 major hurricanes
• 9 major hurricane days
• 170 precent net tropical cyclone activity

2021 vs. 2022

CSU’s report indicates the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season will be similar to 2021 since the ENSO phase has remained essentially unchanged and many of the same factors are in play. While similar, their estimates for named storms, named storm days and hurricanes are up a tick. Last year, Colorado State University predicted 18 named storms, 80 named storm days and 8 hurricanes.

Does the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration Agree?

The National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration’s (NOAA) projections agree with Colorado State University’s report. NOAA estimates a 65 percent chance that this year’s Atlantic hurricane season will have higher than average levels of activity. The National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration also predicts a 25 percent chance of a near-normal season and only a 10 percent chance that the season will be below-normal.

What This Means

You should expect some activity this hurricane season and take appropriate steps to limit property damage where possible. There’s no guarantee your Florida home will be impacted by a hurricane or tropical storm this year, but it’s always best to be prepared.

If your insurance company refuses to cover your property damage this hurricane season, you may want to consider seeking help. You can protect yourself by carefully documented damage and then speaking with a local expert on hurricane damage, like a public claims adjuster, contractor or property damage lawyer.