The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center annually forecasts overall seasonal activity, including hurricane predictions in the Atlantic. They are still conducting research to determine whether hurricane seasons are actually increasing in severity or whether the perceived increase in hurricane frequency and strength is due to other factors. Some speculate that global warming is potentially a factor.
Although increased hurricane season intensity and hurricane frequency are popular talking points among politicians and environmental activists, the NOAA has not definitively declared climate change is or isn’t impacting hurricane propagation.
Their current position (last revised July 12, 2022) is that there is “no strong evidence” of increasing frequency of U.S. hurricane landfalls (both regular and major hurricanes) since tracking began in earnest in the late 19th century.
Perceptions of greater frequency and intensity are likely driven by a combination of better observing capabilities, more media coverage, the public’s increased news access, advocacy and public interest in the topic.
June 1 marks the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season. It extends through summer and into fall, with November 30 being considered the last official day of the hurricane season. Most named storms occur between August and October, which is considered peak hurricane season.
While there is a chance of a hurricane hitting after the season’s end, it’s not a guarantee. Every hurricane season varies in intensity, but pre-season predictions set by forecasters can give us an idea of what to expect.
Considering the record-breaking hurricane seasons of 2020 and 2021, forecasters are expecting this year to follow the same trajectory. According to NOAA’s recent predictions, there is a 65-percent chance of an above-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic (which would make 2022 the seventh consecutive year of an above-average hurricane season).
For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is predicting:
The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season ended up being more active than predicted, which led NOAA to update its original forecast in August of last year. The current above-normal forecast can serve as a good reminder to always be prepared.
Preparing for a hurricane and having a plan in place is key to ensuring the safety of you and your family.
Give yourself plenty of time to make a hurricane escape plan with your family and refresh your emergency supplies kit before the start of every hurricane season.